Water level retrieval for the past and prediction for the next 30 years at Lake Fuxian

??????????????????????????????????2009—2012????????????????????1721.31 m??????????1721.65 m???????????????.??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????.????DYRESM?????????1959—2050????????.?????????????????????????????????????????????????????-?????????????????????????????????????????.????????BCC-CSM2-MR?SSP245?SSP585??????????????????DYRESM??????2021—2050???????.??????1????DYRESM????????-??????????????????????????????????????????????????????.?2??SSP245?SSP585?????????2021—2050??????????1722.98?1723.93 m??1959—2017?????1721.77 m????1.21?2.16 m.????????????????????????????1723.35 m????????????.?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????.;With frequent extreme climate events and intensive human activities, the water levels at Lake Fuxian have fluctuated significantly in past especially during 2009-2010 with an drought. The average level from 2009 to 2012 was (1721.31 m) lower than minimum required value (1721.65 m), which caused a great threat lake ecosystem. So, it is very important find effective method or tool for predicting under change future make corresponding adaptation. In this paper, one-dimensional hydrodynamic model (DYRESM) used simulate 1959 2050. Due lack of observation inflow volumes, we developed regression between precipitation produce missing inflows using DYRESM, existing measurements rainfall. then verified 2021-2050 based on rainfall predicted by global (BCC-CSM2-MR) Scenario SSP245 SSP585. results show that DYRESM had satisfied performance. 2021 2050 SSP585 were 1722.98 1723.93 m respectively, will be 1.21 2.16 higher those 2017. might intermittently maximum warning (1723.35 but not m). conclusion, limited impact volume Fuxian.